Global Scenarios: Background Review for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

The long-range outlook for the world’s ecosystems depends on the course taken by global development in the coming decades. Current global trends and ecological dynamics are consistent with very different outcomes, defined by alternative assumptions about the technological, economic, demographic, geopolitical, and social aspects of development and the ways in which institutions, personal and public values, and natural systems may be expected to respond to historically novel stressors. Recent advances in scenario analysis have addressed the dual methodological challenge of exploring these uncertainties in an organized way and determining what would be needed to make the transition to sustainability. This paper reviews global scenario research, setting current efforts in a historical context. It focuses on seven recent studies that are comprehensive, regionally disaggregated, and narratively rich—and thus of greatest relevance to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). It summarizes their social visions and the level of quantitative detail used in these exercises. Taken together, this suite of global scenario studies provides a useful platform for the MA by offering insight into the complex factors that drive ecosystem change, estimating the magnitude of regional pressures on ecosystems, sounding the alert on critical uncertainties that could undermine sustainable development, and understanding the importance of institutions and values. But these studies are only a point of departure. The integration of changing ecosystem conditions into global development scenarios, as both effects and causes, is at the cutting edge of scenario analysis. The paper concludes by identifying directions for this research program and suggesting ways that the MA can contribute to this effort.     

Functional morphology of the caudal skeleton in teleostean fishes

The basic function of the caudal skeleton in teleostean fishes is to support the caudal fin, but its parts contribute to this function in somewhat different ways. The main axis for this support is the upturned terminal end of the vertebral column, which ends at the base of the uppermost principal rays. The uroneural struts just ahead of this axis provide support for it. The parts of the caudal skeleton behind and below this upturned axis, the hypurals and parhypural, not only support the caudal rays but also provide a means for differential movements between the upper and lower parts of the fin base. This basic caudal skeleton varies with the position of the fish in the sequence of teleosten evolution, the way in which the fish uses its caudal fin, and to some extent with the shape of the fin.     

A social learning model of conflict and cooperation in human societies

Patterns of conflict and cooperation both within and between societies may be related to the degree of cultural similarity within and between the same societies. A simple model of social learning is used to predict patterns of conflict and cooperation in hypothetical societies that differ in the roles of relatives and nonrelatives in the enculturation of children. The model is illustrated by comparing its predictions to known differences in the patterns of conflict between males inpatrilocal and matrilocal societies.     

Distinct functions of maternal and somatic Pat1 protein paralogs

We previously identified Xenopus Pat1a (P100) as a member of the maternal CPEB RNP complex, whose components resemble those of P-(rocessing) bodies, and which is implicated in translational control in Xenopus oocytes. Database searches have identified Pat1a proteins in other vertebrates, as well as paralogous Pat1b proteins. Here we characterize Pat1 proteins, which have no readily discernable sequence features, in Xenopus oocytes, eggs, and early embryos and in human tissue culture cells. xPat1a and 1b have essentially mutually exclusive expression patterns in oogenesis and embryogenesis. xPat1a is degraded during meiotic maturation, via PEST-like regions, while xPat1b mRNA is translationally activated at GVBD by cytoplasmic polyadenylation. Pat1 proteins bind RNA in vitro, via a central domain, with a preference for G-rich sequences, including the NRAS 5′ UTR G-quadruplex-forming sequence. When tethered to reporter mRNA, both Pat proteins repress translation in oocytes. Indeed, both epitope-tagged proteins interact with the same components of the CPEB RNP complex, including CPEB, Xp54, eIF4E1b, Rap55B, and ePAB. However, examining endogenous protein interactions, we find that in oocytes only xPat1a is a bona fide component of the CPEB RNP, and that xPat1b resides in a separate large complex. In tissue culture cells, hPat1b localizes to P-bodies, while mPat1a-GFP is either found weakly in P-bodies or disperses P-bodies in a dominant-negative fashion. Altogether we conclude that Pat1a and Pat1b proteins have distinct functions, mediated in separate complexes. Pat1a is a translational repressor in oocytes in a CPEB-containing complex, and Pat1b is a component of P-bodies in somatic cells.     

Functional morphology of the spiracles in two species of Argasidae (Metastigmata: Acarina), with particular reference to responses to desiccation

Spiracle morphology of Argas persicus (Oken) and Omithodorus acinus Whittick is described and the differences between the two species are related to biological factors. Argasid and ixodid spiracle structures and functions are compared.     

Antagonistic and synergistic interactions between aluminum and manganese on growth of Vigna unguiculata at low ionic strength

Concentrations of soluble aluminum (Al) and manganese (Mn) frequently reach phytotoxic levels in acid soils. While dose response relationships for these metals are well documented, the effects of combined exposure have received less attention. We have examined the effect of combinations of Al and Mn on growth and metal accumulation in Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp. grown in solution culture under conditions of low ionic strength (conductivities typically < 100 µS cm⁻¹). The nature of interaction between these metals varied with the specific physiological response, the part of the plant investigated, and the relative amount of stress imposed. Analysis of growth data provided evidence for amelioration of metal toxicity (antagonistic effects), although this effect was dose dependent. Analysis of metal content data provided evidence for antagonistic and synergistic (exacerbation of toxicity) effects, again depending on dose. Analysis of foliar symptoms also provided evidence for antagonisms and synergisms, with the nature of the response dependent on the specific physiological response and specific plant part investigated. In contrast with previous reports, evidence for antagonistic, synergistic, and multiplicative effects on growth, metal uptake, and expression of foliar symptoms have been obtained under physiologically and environmentally relevant conditions. These results suggest a more detailed analysis of the potential for interactions between metals in the environment is required.     

Patterns of sexual behavior in male macaques

One large social group of each of three species of macaques (Macaca mulatta, M. fascicularis, M. radiata), housed in half-acre field cages at the California Primate Research Center, were observed for a total of 150 h. Data on sexual behavior and dominance interactions were recorded by pairs of experienced observers using a focal animal technique. Single or multiple mount-to-ejaculation sequences, number of thrusts per mount, number of mounts per sequence, duration of mounts per sequence, duration of sequences, social rank and frequency of sexual activity were recorded for each adult male. M. mulatta used a multiple mount-to-ejaculation (MME) pattern in 91% of their copulations. M. radiata used a single mount-to-ejaculation (SME) pattern in 91% of their copulations. M. fascicularis used both patterns—53% MME and 47% SME. A positive correlation was found between rank and sexual activity in fascicularis and mulatta males. A negative correlation between rank and sexual activity was found in radiata males and also a positive correlation between rank and age indicating that the youngest and most subordinate radiata males were the most sexually active males. In reviewing the literature, a relationship between degree of intermale competition, intermale tolerance and type of mounting pattern was revealed. Macaque species that primarily use an SME pattern also show sa high degree of intermale tolerance and little interrnale competition. Macaque species that primarily use an MME pattern typically show a high degree of intermale competition and a low degree of intermale tolerance. Possible events leading to such relationships are discussed.     

AVPR1b variation and the emergence of adaptive phenotypes in Platyrrhini primates

Platyrrhini (New World monkeys, NWm) are a group of primates characterized by behavioral and reproductive traits that are otherwise uncommon among primates, including social monogamy, direct paternal care, and twin births. As a consequence, the study of Platyrrhine primates is an invaluable tool for the discovery of the genetic repertoire underlying these taxon‐specific traits. Recently, high conservation of vasopressin (AVP) sequence, in contrast with high variability of oxytocin (OXT), has been described in NWm. AVP and OXT functions are possible due to interaction with their receptors: AVPR1a, AVPR1b, AVPR2, and OXTR; and the variability in this system is associated with the traits mentioned above. Understanding the variability in the receptors is thus fundamental to understand the function and evolution of the system as a whole. Here we describe the variability of AVPR1b coding region in 20 NWm species, which is well‐known to influence behavioral traits such as aggression, anxiety, and stress control in placental mammals. Our results indicate that 4% of AVPR1b sites may be under positive selection and a significant number of sites under relaxed selective constraint. Considering the known role of AVPR1b, we suggest that some of the changes described here for the Platyrrhini may be a part of the genetic repertoire connected with the complex network of neuroendocrine mechanisms of AVP–OXT system in the modulation of the HPA axis. Thus, these changes may have promoted the emergence of social behaviors such as direct paternal care in socially monogamous species that are also characterized by small body size and twin births.     

Bayesian Quantile Regression for Longitudinal Studies with Nonignorable Missing Data

Summary .  We study quantile regression (QR) for longitudinal measurements with nonignorable intermittent missing data and dropout. Compared to conventional mean regression, quantile regression can characterize the entire conditional distribution of the outcome variable, and is more robust to outliers and misspecification of the error distribution. We account for the within-subject correlation by introducing a   ℓ₂   penalty in the usual QR check function to shrink the subject-specific intercepts and slopes toward the common population values. The informative missing data are assumed to be related to the longitudinal outcome process through the shared latent random effects. We assess the performance of the proposed method using simulation studies, and illustrate it with data from a pediatric AIDS clinical trial.